FBK Economic Club Experts Explained Why Compute National Wealth.

On May 27, 2014 a regular meeting of FBK Economic Club was held where the experts discussed the results of research of “How much is Russia: 10 years later” carried out by the FBK Institute of Strategic Analysis in February-May 2014.

Took part in the meeting of the club: Sergey Vasilyev, Deputy Chair, Vnesheconombank Board member, Sergey Guriev, Paris School of Political Sciences, professor (in the format of a video conference from Paris), Sergey Shapiguzov, FBK President, representatives of mass media and business community.

The main report on the research project summary was presented by Igor Nikolaev, the FBK Institute of Strategic Analysis director, the Higher School of Economics, professor.
In his speech he presented the conclusions the research group arrived at.
Over the decade (2002 - 2012) the value of Russian economy decreased by 3% and amounted to 3,460.1 trillion roubles; the researchers believe that the reasons for that are the low rates of economic growth and low forecast indicators of the country’s social and economic long-range development.
The doubling of GDP - deemed to be the goal of the country’s economic growth – did not take place, as the GDP has increased by 60.3% over the decade.
The social sectors (healthcare, education, culture) still remain to be extremely underestimated. Russia even now, 10 years later, cannot be called a “social state” despite the constitutional provision of such status. Noticeably overestimated still remains to be the sector of Trade and Public Catering. Its input in the GDP of the country is about 1.5 times less than in the developed countries.
The input of the scientific-technological potential in the value of the country is extremely insufficient today. In the recent years there has been no noticeable recovery of the scientific-technological potential, and the “brain drain” is still in progress.
Over time the fixed assets become less important for the accrual of value of the entire economy and the role grows of the human, social capital that is referred to the so-called non-produced capital.
In conclusion Igor Nikolaev stated that the value-based management of the country over the past years did not make a strategic approach in the development and implementation of the long-range social and economic policy.
In the experts’ opinion, along with the other information the findings of “How much is Russia” can be used for the development of the social and economic policy in Russia.
Igor Nikolaev dwelt separately on the research methods pointing out that the applied approach of valuating the national wealth sector by sector through the technique of discounted income is unique for Russia and allows making quantitative assessment of the national wealth in different periods in comparable prices.

Sergey Guriev drew attention to the methodological aspect of research adding that the topics are of current importance in Europe and America where much attention is paid to the analysis of the countries’ national wealth and the income of social groups through the income method FBK applied. Projects on these subjects, according to Guriev, are currently under the implementation by several research groups in a number of countries.
With reference to the contents Guriev remarks that, ensuing from the fact that the national wealth does not grow, the rates of growth of the national economy will not be high, if any. The economist thinks that the second and the third quarters of the current year will demonstrate a negative dynamics for GDP in Russia.

Sergey Vasilyev in his speech said that the aggregate results of the study surprised him as the growth rates of economy in some years under the survey were fairly high.
Specifically, rather many industrial and infrastructural objects were put into operation in Russia, which should have increased the industry cost value, however, according to the research data, the value of the industry halved over the decade. “So much was built in Russia – and where did it all go?” asks Sergey Vasilyev.
On the whole the VEB Deputy Chairman gave a high assessment of the work carried out by the Institute of Strategic Analysis.

Sergey Shapiguzov pointed out that the researchers achieved essential scientific results. “We are not aware of other works of such range and scale either in the academic media or in higher schools”, said FBK President.

The FBK Economic Club is an authoritative examination platform allowing the representatives of mass media to meet with reputable economists, politicians, officials for professional discussion of a wide range of economic matters. Presentations of studies and analytical reports of FBK Company take place within the framework of the Club.