FBK GT’s Economic Club Experts Discuss Calendar Markers of Economy

Which months are the most favourable for the Russian economy? How figures of Russia’s manufacturing, agriculture and other industries change from quarter to quarter? Can we explain all periodic progress by seasonality? These were some of the questions discussed by top Russian experts at the meeting of FBK GT’s Economic Club.

Igor Nikolaev, the Director of the FBK Strategic Analysis Institute, traditionally opened discussion by presenting an analytical report titled “Calendar Markers of the Economy”. “We have analysed the state of the economy in the periods from 1996 to 2011 and from 2012 to 2018. It is apparent that various industries have their own good and bad months. For example, the growth in construction is evident in December, while agriculture grows in October,” Igor Nikolaev said.

Alexander Surinov, a former head of the Federal State Statistics Service and the HSE Director for Statistical Studies, agreed that seasons strongly influence the economy of our northern country is strongly influenced by seasons. However, in his opinion, the answer to the question why the fourth quarter is crucial for the majority of industries is much simpler.

“It seems to me that there are two reasons here. First of all, the fourth quarter is the end of the business period. Companies try to spend allocated funds more actively starting from September. Secondly, all statistical discrepancies are also corrected during that period,” the expert said.

Vladimir Salnikov, the Director of the Institute for National Economic Forecasts under the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained why over a half of the growth in construction happens at the end of the year. It is just more convenient for companies to report all changes once a year and this is in December when it happens.

“The so called “good October” in agriculture is likely to have the same scenario. The harvest is reaped, the results are presented and the dynamics of economic growth is reported,” he said.

Vasiliy Solodkov, the Director of the HSE Banking Institute, said that there are no significant cyclical changes when dealing with legal entities in the banking sector. As for individuals, it is easy to identify special features related to specific seasons.

Borrowing is at its peak during the holiday period and before the new year and the amount of deposits starts to increase afterwards. As a rule, bank card settlements are at their highest in summer,” Vasiliy Solodkov said.

FBK GT’s Economic Club is a unique discussion platform where journalists can meet well-known economists, politicians and public officials in order to discuss a wide variety of economic issues. Analytical reports prepared by FBK GT are also presented in the Club.

Analytical report “Calendar Markers of the Economy” (in Russian) (PDF)