“The bust in the global securities markets: prospective consequences for Russia”. Forecast by FBK Director of Strategic Analysis Department

A conference dedicated to “The bust on the global securities markets: prospective consequences for Russia” was held on August 9, 2011 in the RIA Novosti press-center. At the conference the experts discussed how the meltdown in the global securities market prompted by negative statistics from the USA and downgrade of its credit rating from AAA down to AA+ shall affect Russian economy.
Igor Nikolaev, Director of FBK Strategic Analysis Department noted that background and reasons of the previous crisis have not been eliminated. At the same time Nikolaev does not think that the recent events are the beginning of the second wave, however he still assumes the possibility of total stock market crash. According to him, only a much more considerable event can direct the economy to the full-scale meltdown. “I reckon that with 90 % chance it will happen by the end of the year. There is no such thing as miracles: if mistakes haven’t been corrected, you’ll have to pay for them”, the expert noted.
According to Igor Nikolaev, the difference from the 2008 crisis is that Russia already has no Reserve Fund in the amount enough to smooth the crisis fallout. At the same time there are overstated social liabilities which are to be implemented. The global-scale events to be held as well. According to Igor Nikolaev, if everything unfolds under the negative scenario, the situation in Russia can be worse than during the last crisis.
Anton Danilov-Danilyan, Vice-President of Business Russia, Sergey Afontsev, Deputy Chairman of Expert Council under the Industrial Policy Committee of The Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs and Sergey Moiseev, Deputy Director of Financial Stability Department of the RF Central Bank also participated in the discussion.