The price of «the end of the world» for the Russians – 30 billion roubles

«The end of the world» having led to the higher demand for a number of goods and services had a quite definite economic price - about 30 billion roubles. The analysts of audit and consulting company FBK have estimated the preparations of the Russians in such sum, having analyzed forecasting data on turnover of retail trade, the volume and structure of paid services in December 2012 as well as the data of social surveys about the number of people prepared for «the end of the world».

As Igor Nikolaev, director of the FBK Strategic Analysis department reminds, according to the Russian Public Opinion Research Centre three percent of the Russians were actively preparing for «the end of the world» provided themselves with food and prime necessities. («Levada-Centre» received the data that fourteen percent of the Russians considered the end of the world possible.)

Expenditures of the Russians for «the end of the world» had the following structure: prime necessities, medicines, renting places in bunkers, air tickets and tourist vouchers, hairdressing and cosmetic services, services of baths, showers and saunas; courses on preparation for  «the end of the world», communication services, cafes and restaurants.

In November 2012 the turnover of retail trade actually amounted 1892.7 billion roubles.  By experience of the recent years the December turnover exceeds 19-20 percent the November one, that`s why we forecast it approximately in 2.3 trillion Rub», - Nikolaev says.  On this basis three percent of the Russians who were actively preparing for the Apocalypse will spend approximately 69 billion roubles in total on purchase of goods in December 2012. Estimating share of expenses on «the end of the world» in their spending at 25 percent we receive that it`s 17.3 billion roubles.  A similar calculation of service market provides the figure of about 4 billion roubles. The necessity to take into account expenses for medicines, body care products and cosmetics, bunkers, restaurants, etc. makes add to 2-3 billion roubles more. Consequently, the total sum of expenses based on the predicted data for December 2012 will account approximately 23-24 billion roubles.  However, according to I. Nikolaev, this figure should be corrected upward subject to the people who were preparing for «the end of the world» did shopping long before the end of December (higher demand for number of goods is already observed in some regions in September-November 2012).

«Thus the total sum of expenditures of the Russians on «the end of the world» can be maximum estimated as 30 billion roubles», - FBK representative concluded.  Although he added that it isn`t worth exaggerating the value of this sum. «Simultaneously there were observed the restraining motives in consumer mood of the Russians: they said what for spending money if tomorrow it would be «the end of the world».  It means that economy from the point of view of specific activation of consumer demand hardly felt the beneficial effect of «the end of the world», - Nikolaev summarized.