Total Cost of Russian Economy -3.5 Quadrillion Roubles. FBK’s Research on “How Much is Russia”

FBK experts accomplished a large-scale research project of “How much is Russia: 10 years later”. According to the computation of the FBK Institute of Strategic Analysis, the worth of Russian economy evaluated as the aggregate value of all its branches as at the end of 2012 amounted to 3,460.1 trillion roubles, which is by 3% lower compared with the indicator of ten years ago.
   
For correct comparison of the current results with the value achieved 10 years ago (974.7 trillion roubles) the latter shall be multiplied by the chain index number– the product of GDP deflators for 2003-2012. The chain index number at that period was 366.3%. So, in the prices of 2012, the cost would have amounted to 3,570.1 trillion roubles.

The head of research Igor Nikolaev, the FBK Institute of Strategic Analysis director, points out that the valuation of the national wealth 10 years after the first similar study allows arriving at a number of conclusions, which could improve the country’s worth in the future.

1.    The depreciation of the Russian economy in 2002-2012 by 3% indicates that the potential for economic growth the country had in 2002 was not made the best use of. Besides, the prospects of development a decade later turned out to be even worse than they used to be early in the 2000-ies.
2.    The depreciation of the country’s economy was the result of much lower rates of the economic growth, the evidence of which is the failure to double the GDP targeted at by 2010 (fulfilled by 60.3%), as well as much lower characteristics of the forecast for the country’s social and economic long-term development.
3.    The social sectors (healthcare, education, culture) still remain to be extremely underestimated. Russia even now, 10 years later, cannot be called a “social state” despite the constitutional provision of such status.
4.    Noticeably overestimated still remains to be the sector of Trade and Public Catering. Its input in the GDP of the country is about 1.5 times less than in the developed countries. The value generated through re-sales increases the total value of the sector and the country, though its quality cannot be recognized as satisfactory.
5.    The input of the scientific-technological potential in the value of the country is extremely insufficient today. In the recent years there has been no noticeable recovery of the scientific-technological potential.
6.    The inefficient public administration still does not fit well with the sufficiently large outlay for the sector operation. According to the data of the World Bank, all qualitative indicators of state governance have worsened for the last 10 years.
7.    Over time the fixed assets become less important for the accrual of value of the entire economy and the role grows of the human, social capital that is referred to the so-called non-produced assets.
8.    The comparison of results of applying the method of discounted income in the valuation of the country’s economic potential against the available foreign practices (first and foremost of the World Bank) indicates that such methodical tools have good prospects for use.
9.    The inventory of statistical economic data required for the country’s economy valuation showed that effort is needed for improving the statistical tools applied as well as enhancing the validity of statistical information.
10.    The value-based management of the country over the past years did not make a strategic approach in the development and implementation of the long-range social and economic policy. That should be changed

Detailed research materials can be found at skolko.ru.